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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.