Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Selection Process
Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
