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Only two days prior to the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in later and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which the opponent would have basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously backed Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view existed some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.