Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
